Video: Vim li cas cov koom haum xav tau kev kwv yees los ntawm kev xa khoom xa tuaj?
2024 Tus sau: Stanley Ellington | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-16 00:17
Tsim nyog kev kwv yees pab xyuas koj muaj txaus muab ntawm tes kom txaus siab. Ib qho overestimation ntawm kev thov ua rau cov khoom lag luam bloated thiab cov nqi siab. Kev kwv yees qhov xav tau txhais tau tias ntau tus neeg siv khoom muaj txiaj ntsig yuav tsis tau txais cov khoom lawv xav tau.
Tsuas yog li ntawd, vim li cas kev kwv yees tseem ceeb hauv cov saw hlau?
Los ntawm kev txiav cov nqi kom cov neeg siv khoom zoo siab, kev kwv yees yog ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm kev tswj cov saw hlau , pab cov tuam txhab sau cov xaj kom raws sij hawm, zam cov nqi khoom muag tsis tsim nyog thiab npaj rau kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi.
Tsis tas li ntawd, kev kwv yees khoom siv yog dab tsi? Supply forecasting txhais tau tias ua ib qho kev kwv yees ntawm muab ntawm tib neeg cov peev txheej los txiav txim siab txog kev txheeb xyuas ntawm cov khoom siv tib neeg tam sim no thiab muaj nyob rau yav tom ntej.
Tib neeg kuj nug, dab tsi lub luag haujlwm ntawm kev kwv yees ua si hauv cov khoom siv ntawm kev tsim kom xaj?
Lub luag haujlwm li cas rau kev kwv yees ua si hauv cov khoom siv ntawm kev tsim -rau- xaj cov chaw tsim khoom xws li Dell? Qhov no kwv yees yog siv los kwv yees qhov xav tau yav tom ntej, uas txiav txim siab qhov ntau ntawm txhua qhov xav tau los sib sau ua ke PC thiab cov nroj tsuag muaj peev xwm xav tau los ua lub rooj sib txoos.
Lub luag haujlwm ntawm kev kwv yees yog dab tsi?
Lub ntsiab lus ntawm Kev kwv yees : Kev kwv yees muab qhov kev paub no rau lawv. Kev kwv yees yog tus txheej txheem ntawm kev kwv yees cov xwm txheej cuam tshuam ntawm yav tom ntej, raws li kev txheeb xyuas ntawm lawv tus cwj pwm yav dhau los thiab tam sim no. Kev txheeb xyuas yav dhau los thiab tam sim no ntawm cov xwm txheej muab lub hauv paus pab rau kev sau cov ntaub ntawv hais txog lawv qhov tshwm sim yav tom ntej.
Pom zoo:
Kev thov tuaj yeem kwv yees los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom yav dhau los?
Kev xav tau kev kwv yees tuaj yeem yog ob qho tib si zoo thiab ntau thiab tsis zoo li kev muag khoom kwv yees tsis yog raws li cov ntaub ntawv muag keeb kwm. Qhov tseeb, kev thov kwv yees kwv yees qhov kev thov rau ib qho khoom tshwj xeeb, pawg khoom lossis qhov chaw muag khoom uas txawv ntawm kev muag khoom nrog kev muag khoom tsis tau
Vim li cas cov kev kwv yees kwv yees muaj tseeb dua?
Aggregate forecasts feem ntau yog qhov tseeb dua li qhov kev kwv yees tsis sib xws vim a. aggregate forecasts yuav muaj ib tug loj tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias. b. aggregate forecasts yuav muaj ib tug me me tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias
Tus neeg twg tau soj ntsuam kev mloog lus ntawm kev sib raug zoo los ntawm kev ua ib qho kev sim uas yuav tsum muaj cov tub ntxhais kawm cov ntsiab lus los tswj cov kev mob siab rau cov ntsiab lus hauv kev tshuaj xyuas kev kawm?
Milgram Shock Experiment Ib qho ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb nto moo tshaj plaws ntawm kev mloog lus hauv kev puas siab puas ntsws tau ua los ntawm Stanley Milgram, tus kws kho mob hlwb ntawm Yale University. Nws tau ua ib qho kev sim qhia txog qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev mloog lus rau txoj cai thiab lub siab ntawm tus kheej
Yuav ua li cas economists kwv yees los ntawm kev tsim ib qho kev thov nkhaus thaum twg qhov kev thov nkhaus yuav pab tau?
Raws li tus nqi ntawm qhov zoo lossis kev pabcuam txo qis tib neeg feem ntau xav yuav ntau ntawm nws thiab rov ua dua. Vim li cas aneconomist tsim kev lag luam xav tau nkhaus? Ua piv txwv yuav ua li cas tib neeg yuav hloov lawv cov kev yuav khoom thaum tus nqi hloov. Daim ntawv cog lus ntawm tus nqi thiab cov khoom lag luam
Koj txhais li cas los ntawm kev kwv yees thiab kev sim ntawm kev xav?
Kev kwv yees sawv cev rau txoj hauv kev los yog txheej txheem ntawm kev kawm thiab kev txiav txim siab txog cov pej xeem raws li tus qauv haum rau cov ntaub ntawv. Hypothesis tests = kev ntsuam xyuas rau tus nqi tshwj xeeb ntawm qhov ntsuas