Cov txheej txheem:
Video: Kev thov tuaj yeem kwv yees los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom yav dhau los?
2024 Tus sau: Stanley Ellington | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-16 00:17
Xav tau forecasting tau ua ob qho tib si qualitative thiab quantitative thiab tsis zoo li ntawm kev muag khoom kwv yees tsis yog nyob ntawm ib leeg xwb cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom keeb kwm . Qhov tseeb, xav tau kev kwv yees yog projecting xav tau rau ib yam khoom, pawg khoom lossis chaw muag khoom uas txawv ntawm kev muag khoom kwv yees nrog nco muag cib fim.
Ntawm no, yuav ua li cas koj kwv yees kev muag khoom yam tsis muaj ntaub ntawv keeb kwm?
7 Cov kauj ruam rau kev kwv yees yam tsis muaj ntaub ntawv keeb kwm
- Pib nrog kuv txoj haujlwm nyiaj txiag tam sim no.
- Kawm txog kev sib tw cov txiaj ntsig.
- Khiav ntau yam kev saib xyuas thiab nruj heev siv software forecasting.
- Tshawb nrhiav cov neeg siv khoom thiab kev cia siab.
- Tshawb nrhiav lwm yam.
- Account rau txhua yam (txawm tias hauv cov khoom me me).
- Tshawb nrhiav kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo.
Ib tug kuj yuav nug, ua li cas koj kwv yees kev muag khoom siv cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm hauv Excel? Tsim kev kwv yees
- Hauv ib daim ntawv ua haujlwm, sau ob cov ntaub ntawv uas sib raug zoo rau ib leeg:
- Xaiv ob cov ntaub ntawv series.
- Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv tab, hauv Forecast pab pawg, nyem Forecast Sheet.
- Hauv Daim Ntawv Qhia Txog Kev Ua Haujlwm, xaiv ib kab ntawv lossis kab ntawv kab ntawv rau qhov pom kev sawv cev ntawm kev kwv yees.
Ntxiv mus, koj yuav ua li cas kwv yees kev muag khoom xav tau?
Rau kwv yees xav tau , pib los ntawm kev tsom mus rau ib qho lossis ib qho me me ntawm cov khoom, tom qab ntawd tshuaj xyuas seb qhov kev tshaj tawm lossis muag cuam tshuam dhau los xav tau . Tom ntej no, saib seb koj cov neeg sib tw ua dab tsi los saib seb lawv puas muab cov nyiaj cheb lossis lwm yam muab.
Koj ua qhov projections raws li cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm li cas?
Exponential Smoothing (ETS)
- Xaiv cov ntaub ntawv uas muaj ncua sij hawm thiab cov nqi.
- Mus rau Cov Ntaub Ntawv> Huab Cua> Huab Cua Huab Cua.
- Xaiv hom kab kos (peb pom zoo kom siv kab lossis kab ntawv kab ntawv).
- Xaiv hnub kawg rau kev kwv yees.
- Nyem qhov Tsim.
Pom zoo:
Cov neeg tshawb xyuas muaj sijhawm ntev npaum li cas tom qab hnub tshaj tawm tsab ntawv tshaj tawm los ua kom tiav cov ntaub ntawv tshawb xyuas los ntawm kev sib sau ua ke cov ntaub ntawv tshawb xyuas zaum kawg?
Cov ntaub ntawv txheeb xyuas ua tiav thiab zaum kawg yuav tsum tau muab sib dhos rau khaws cia raws li hnub tsis pub dhau 45 hnub tom qab hnub tshaj tawm daim ntawv tshaj tawm (hnub ua tiav cov ntaub ntawv)
Vim li cas cov kev kwv yees kwv yees muaj tseeb dua?
Aggregate forecasts feem ntau yog qhov tseeb dua li qhov kev kwv yees tsis sib xws vim a. aggregate forecasts yuav muaj ib tug loj tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias. b. aggregate forecasts yuav muaj ib tug me me tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias
Yuav ua li cas economists kwv yees los ntawm kev tsim ib qho kev thov nkhaus thaum twg qhov kev thov nkhaus yuav pab tau?
Raws li tus nqi ntawm qhov zoo lossis kev pabcuam txo qis tib neeg feem ntau xav yuav ntau ntawm nws thiab rov ua dua. Vim li cas aneconomist tsim kev lag luam xav tau nkhaus? Ua piv txwv yuav ua li cas tib neeg yuav hloov lawv cov kev yuav khoom thaum tus nqi hloov. Daim ntawv cog lus ntawm tus nqi thiab cov khoom lag luam
Dab tsi yog cov cuab yeej lossis cov txheej txheem siv los hloov cov ntaub ntawv kev ua haujlwm rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv kev ua haujlwm hauv cov txheej txheem tswj Scope?
Variance Analysis yog ib qho cuab yeej & Cov txheej txheem ntawm Kev Tswj Scope Txheej Txheem thiab Kev Ntsuas Kev Ua Haujlwm Ua Haujlwm (WPM) yog qhov tso tawm ntawm cov txheej txheem no
Tshooj 404 xav tau dab tsi ntawm kev tswj hwm cov ntaub ntawv tswj xyuas sab hauv tshawb fawb lub tuam txhab pej xeem thiab piav qhia txog kev tswj hwm cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev tswj hwm sab hauv kom ua tau raws li cov cai ntawm ntu 40
Txoj Cai Sarbanes-Oxley xav kom cov kev tswj hwm ntawm cov tuam txhab pej xeem ntsuas qhov ua tau zoo ntawm kev tswj hwm sab hauv ntawm cov neeg tawm tswv yim rau kev tshaj tawm nyiaj txiag. Tshooj 404(b) xav kom ib lub tuam txhab tuav pov hwm tus neeg soj ntsuam los ua pov thawj rau, thiab tshaj tawm txog, kev tswj xyuas kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm nws cov kev tswj hwm sab hauv