Cov txheej txheem:
Video: Vim li cas cov kev kwv yees kwv yees muaj tseeb dua?
2024 Tus sau: Stanley Ellington | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-16 00:17
Aggregate forecasts feem ntau yog tseeb dua dua li disaggregate kev kwv yees vim a. aggregate kev kwv yees yuav muaj ib tug loj tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias. b. aggregate kev kwv yees zoo li muaj tus qauv me me sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias.
Ua kom pom qhov no, qhov kev kwv yees tag nrho yog dab tsi?
Ib aggregate kev kwv yees hais txog lub tuam txhab cov peev txheej uas yuav tsum tau muaj - tus nqi ntawm cov khoom nws xav tau los tsim thiab cov tswv yim los tsim nws - rau lub sijhawm ob mus rau 12 lub hlis tom ntej.
Ib tug kuj yuav nug, dab tsi yog cov yam ntxwv tseem ceeb ntawm kev kwv yees tseeb? Cov Cov yam ntxwv tseem ceeb ntawm kev kwv yees raug yog ib qho kev sib raug zoo, ntawm qhov nruab nrab, nruab nrab ntawm qhov tseeb thiab kwv yees qhov tseem ceeb thiab kev sib raug zoo ntawm qhov tseeb thiab kwv yees series.
Hauv qhov no, vim li cas cov kev kwv yees luv luv yog qhov tseeb dua li kev kwv yees ntev?
Luv luv - lub sij hawm kwv yees yog muaj tseeb tshaj qhov ntev - lub sij hawm kwv yees : A kev kwv yees ntev dua horizon ho nce txoj hauv kev ntawm kev hloov pauv tsis paub rau peb tseem muaj kev cuam tshuam rau yav tom ntej xav tau. Ib qho piv txwv yooj yim yog huab cua-raws li kev thov.
Dab tsi yog cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev kwv yees zoo?
Elements ntawm ib tug zoo FORECAST
- Kev kwv yees yuav tsum tau raws sijhawm.
- Kev kwv yees yuav tsum yog qhov tseeb, thiab qhov ntsuas qhov tseeb yuav tsum tau hais.
- Kev kwv yees yuav tsum ntseeg tau; nws yuav tsum ua haujlwm tsis tu ncua.
- Cov kev kwv yees yuav tsum tau hais nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus units.
- Kev kwv yees yuav tsum yog sau.
Pom zoo:
Kev kwv yees qhov tseeb yog dab tsi?
Forecast bias yog ib qho kev nyiam rau qhov kev kwv yees kom tsis tu ncua siab dua lossis qis dua tus nqi tiag tiag. Forecast bias yog qhov txawv ntawm kev kwv yees yuam kev hauv qhov kev kwv yees tuaj yeem muaj qhov ua yuam kev tab sis tseem yuav tsis muaj kev ncaj ncees kiag li
Tus neeg twg tau soj ntsuam kev mloog lus ntawm kev sib raug zoo los ntawm kev ua ib qho kev sim uas yuav tsum muaj cov tub ntxhais kawm cov ntsiab lus los tswj cov kev mob siab rau cov ntsiab lus hauv kev tshuaj xyuas kev kawm?
Milgram Shock Experiment Ib qho ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb nto moo tshaj plaws ntawm kev mloog lus hauv kev puas siab puas ntsws tau ua los ntawm Stanley Milgram, tus kws kho mob hlwb ntawm Yale University. Nws tau ua ib qho kev sim qhia txog qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev mloog lus rau txoj cai thiab lub siab ntawm tus kheej
Vim li cas cov koom haum xav tau kev kwv yees los ntawm kev xa khoom xa tuaj?
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Yuav ua li cas economists kwv yees los ntawm kev tsim ib qho kev thov nkhaus thaum twg qhov kev thov nkhaus yuav pab tau?
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Koj txhais li cas los ntawm kev kwv yees thiab kev sim ntawm kev xav?
Kev kwv yees sawv cev rau txoj hauv kev los yog txheej txheem ntawm kev kawm thiab kev txiav txim siab txog cov pej xeem raws li tus qauv haum rau cov ntaub ntawv. Hypothesis tests = kev ntsuam xyuas rau tus nqi tshwj xeeb ntawm qhov ntsuas