Video: Yuav ua li cas economists kwv yees los ntawm kev tsim ib qho kev thov nkhaus thaum twg qhov kev thov nkhaus yuav pab tau?
2024 Tus sau: Stanley Ellington | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-16 00:17
Raws li tus nqi ntawm qhov zoo lossis kev pabcuam txo qis tib neeg feem ntau xav yuav ntau ntawm nws thiab rov ua dua. Vim li cas ua ib economist tsim ib lub khw xav tau nkhaus ? Rau kwv yees zoo li cov neeg yuav hloov lawv cov kev yuav khoom thaum tus nqi hloov. Daim ntawv cog lus ntawm tus nqi thiab cov khoom lag luam.
Tsis tas li lo lus nug yog, qhov kev thov nkhaus yuav ua li cas?
Los ntawm kev npaj ua lag luam xav tau nkhaus rau koj cov khoom, koj tuaj yeem kwv yees cov nyhuv ntawm tus nqi fluctuations onthe xav tau rau koj cov khoom thiab teeb tsa koj tus nqi raws li. Setting koj tus nqi ntawm qhov pom kev ntawm lub khw xavcurve txhais tau tias muaj txiaj ntsig ntau dua thiab muag ntau dua ntawm tus nqi raug.
Kuj Paub, lub hom phiaj ntawm lub sijhawm xav tau yog dab tsi? Lus txhais: A xav tau sij hawm yog ib daim ntawv qhia uas qhia tus naj npawb ntawm cov khoom lossis cov kev pabcuam xav tau ntawm tus nqi tshwj xeeb. Ib lo lus, nws yog ib lub rooj uas qhia txog kev sib raug zoo ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom thiab tus nqi ntawm cov neeg siv khoom txaus siab thiab tuaj yeem them rau lawv ntawm tus nqi ntawd.
Ib yam li ntawd ib tug yuav nug, dab tsi ua lag luam hu ua qhov xwm txheej uas cov neeg siv khoom?
tus neeg siv khoom txaus siab thiab muaj peev xwm yuav qhov kev pabcuam zoo ntawm tus nqi teev. Yuav ua li cas economists hu asituation nyob rau hauv uas cov neeg siv khoom yuav ntau npaum li lawv ua ua ntej, ntawm txhua tus nqi?
Qhov kev thov nkhaus qhia txog txoj cai ntawm kev thov li cas?
Cov daim duab qhia ib tug downward-sloping xavcurve uas sawv cev rau txoj cai ntawm kev thov . Cov xav tau lub sij hawm qhia tau hais tias raws li tus nqi nce, kom muaj nuj nqis demandeddecreses, thiab vice versa. Lub downward nqes hav ntawm lub xavcurve dua qhia txog txoj cai ntawm kev thov -theinverse kev sib raug zoo ntawm tus nqi thiab quantitydemanded.
Pom zoo:
Yuav ua li cas rau qhov kev thov nkhaus thaum cov nyiaj tau los nce?
Kev hloov pauv sab nraud ntawm qhov kev thov yuav tshwm sim yog tias cov nyiaj tau los nce, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm ib txwm zoo; Txawm li cas los xij, rau qhov tsis zoo, qhov kev xav tau nkhaus yuav hloov mus rau sab hauv kev sau cia tias tus neeg siv khoom tsuas yog yuav qhov zoo vim qhov kev txwv nyiaj tau los ntawm kev yuav khoom zoo dua
Kev thov tuaj yeem kwv yees los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom yav dhau los?
Kev xav tau kev kwv yees tuaj yeem yog ob qho tib si zoo thiab ntau thiab tsis zoo li kev muag khoom kwv yees tsis yog raws li cov ntaub ntawv muag keeb kwm. Qhov tseeb, kev thov kwv yees kwv yees qhov kev thov rau ib qho khoom tshwj xeeb, pawg khoom lossis qhov chaw muag khoom uas txawv ntawm kev muag khoom nrog kev muag khoom tsis tau
Vim li cas cov kev kwv yees kwv yees muaj tseeb dua?
Aggregate forecasts feem ntau yog qhov tseeb dua li qhov kev kwv yees tsis sib xws vim a. aggregate forecasts yuav muaj ib tug loj tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias. b. aggregate forecasts yuav muaj ib tug me me tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias
Tus neeg twg tau soj ntsuam kev mloog lus ntawm kev sib raug zoo los ntawm kev ua ib qho kev sim uas yuav tsum muaj cov tub ntxhais kawm cov ntsiab lus los tswj cov kev mob siab rau cov ntsiab lus hauv kev tshuaj xyuas kev kawm?
Milgram Shock Experiment Ib qho ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb nto moo tshaj plaws ntawm kev mloog lus hauv kev puas siab puas ntsws tau ua los ntawm Stanley Milgram, tus kws kho mob hlwb ntawm Yale University. Nws tau ua ib qho kev sim qhia txog qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev mloog lus rau txoj cai thiab lub siab ntawm tus kheej
Koj txhais li cas los ntawm kev kwv yees thiab kev sim ntawm kev xav?
Kev kwv yees sawv cev rau txoj hauv kev los yog txheej txheem ntawm kev kawm thiab kev txiav txim siab txog cov pej xeem raws li tus qauv haum rau cov ntaub ntawv. Hypothesis tests = kev ntsuam xyuas rau tus nqi tshwj xeeb ntawm qhov ntsuas