Cov txheej txheem:
Video: Qhov kev kwv yees tag nrho yog dab tsi?
2024 Tus sau: Stanley Ellington | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-16 00:17
Ib aggregate kev kwv yees hais txog lub tuam txhab cov peev txheej uas yuav tsum muaj - tus nqi ntawm cov khoom nws xav tau los tsim thiab cov tswv yim tsim khoom - rau lub sijhawm ob mus rau 12 lub hlis tom ntej.
Kuj tseem paub yog, vim li cas cov kev kwv yees sib sau ua ke yog qhov tseeb dua?
Aggregated forecasts yog qhov tseeb dua tshaj disaggregated kev kwv yees . Kev hloov pauv ntawm kev thov ntawm txhua qhov chaw muag khoom yog smoothed thaum sib sau ua ke nrog rau lwm qhov chaw, muab a tseeb dua kev kwv yees. Koj tuaj yeem ua tiav qhov kev txhim kho zoo sib xws los ntawm kev kwv yees tus tag nrho thov rau tag nrho cov variations ntawm ib yam khoom ua ke.
Ib yam li ntawd, kev npaj ua ke yog dab tsi thiab nws lub hom phiaj yog dab tsi? Kev npaj ua ke suav nrog kev tsim cov phiaj xwm dav dav rau kev ua haujlwm, kev tsim khoom, thiab qib khoom muag. Lub hom phiaj yog los tsim ib txoj kev npaj ua kom siv tau zoo ntawm cov peev txheej ntawm ib qho lub koom haum.
Tsis tas li ntawd, kev npaj sib sau ua ke txhais li cas?
Aggregate kev npaj yog kev ua lag luam uas ua ib aggregate kev npaj rau cov txheej txheem tsim khoom, ua ntej ntawm 6 mus rau 18 lub hlis, muab lub tswv yim rau kev tswj xyuas seb cov khoom siv thiab lwm yam kev pab yuav tsum tau npaum li cas thiab thaum twg, kom tag nrho cov nqi ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm lub koom haum. yog khaws cia rau qhov tsawg kawg nkaus
Dab tsi yog cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev kwv yees zoo?
Elements ntawm ib tug zoo FORECAST
- Kev kwv yees yuav tsum tau raws sijhawm.
- Kev kwv yees yuav tsum yog qhov tseeb, thiab qhov ntsuas qhov tseeb yuav tsum tau hais.
- Kev kwv yees yuav tsum ntseeg tau; nws yuav tsum ua haujlwm tsis tu ncua.
- Cov kev kwv yees yuav tsum tau hais nyob rau hauv lub ntsiab lus units.
- Kev kwv yees yuav tsum tau sau tseg.
Pom zoo:
Dab tsi yog qhov xav tau kwv yees kev tswj hwm kev ua haujlwm?
Thiab cov txheej txheem ntawm kwv yees kev xav tau yav tom ntej ntawm cov khoom raws li chav tsev lossis tus nqi txiaj ntsig raug xa mus rau qhov xav tau kwv yees. Lub hom phiaj ntawm kev kwv yees yog los pab lub koom haum tswj tam sim no raws li kev npaj rau yav tom ntej los ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas qhov kev xav tau yav tom ntej tshaj plaws
Dab tsi yog qhov kev kwv yees sib txawv hauv kev txheeb xyuas regression?
Hauv kev yooj yim linear regression, peb kwv yees cov qhab nia ntawm ib qho kev sib txawv ntawm cov qhab nia ntawm qhov sib txawv thib ob. Qhov sib txawv peb tau kwv yees yog hu ua qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov sib txawv thiab raug xa mus rau Y. Qhov sib txawv peb tab tom ua raws li peb qhov kev twv ua ntej yog hu ua tus kwv yees sib txawv thiab raug xa mus rau X
Qhov txawv ntawm kev kwv yees thiab kev npaj xav tau yog dab tsi?
Kev kwv yees yog kev kwv yees ntawm kev thov raws li tus lej pom yav dhau los. Cov phiaj xwm xav tau pib nrog kev kwv yees tab sis tom qab ntawd yuav siv lwm yam los txiav txim siab xws li kev faib khoom, qhov twg yuav tuav cov khoom muag, thiab lwm yam. Thaum ua tiav zoo, cov txheej txheem no yuav tsum ua rau cov khoom muag tsawg heev thaum tseem ua tau raws li cov neeg siv khoom xav tau
Vim li cas cov kev kwv yees kwv yees muaj tseeb dua?
Aggregate forecasts feem ntau yog qhov tseeb dua li qhov kev kwv yees tsis sib xws vim a. aggregate forecasts yuav muaj ib tug loj tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias. b. aggregate forecasts yuav muaj ib tug me me tus qauv sib txawv ntawm qhov yuam kev txheeb ze rau qhov txhais tau tias
Dab tsi yog qhov kev thov kwv yees hauv kev lag luam?
Txhais: Demand Forecasting yog hais txog cov txheej txheem ntawm kev kwv yees qhov kev thov yav tom ntej rau lub tuam txhab cov khoom. Hauv lwm lo lus, kev thov kev kwv yees yog suav nrog ntau cov kauj ruam uas cuam tshuam nrog kev cia siab ntawm kev thov rau cov khoom lag luam yav tom ntej nyob rau hauv ob qho tib si tswj tau thiab tsis muaj kev tswj hwm