Video: Dab tsi yog aggregate forecasting?
2024 Tus sau: Stanley Ellington | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-16 00:17
Ib aggregate kev kwv yees hais txog lub tuam txhab cov peev txheej uas yuav tsum tau muaj - tus nqi ntawm cov khoom nws xav tau los tsim thiab cov tswv yim los tsim nws - rau lub sijhawm ob mus rau 12 lub hlis tom ntej.
Tsis tas li ntawd, lub ntsiab lus ntawm kev npaj ua ke yog dab tsi?
Kev npaj ua ke yog ib qho kev ua lag luam uas ua ib qho aggregate kev npaj rau cov txheej txheem tsim khoom, ua ntej ntawm 6 mus rau 18 lub hlis, muab lub tswv yim rau kev tswj xyuas seb cov khoom siv thiab lwm yam khoom siv yuav tsum tau npaum li cas thiab thaum twg, kom tag nrho cov nqi ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm lub koom haum khaws cia kom tsawg kawg nkaus.
Tsis tas li ntawd, tus qauv kev kwv yees yog dab tsi? Kev kwv yees yog cov txheej txheem uas siv cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm los ua cov ntaub ntawv qhia txog kev kwv yees uas muaj kev kwv yees hauv kev txiav txim siab txog kev coj ua yav tom ntej. Cov lag luam siv kev kwv yees los txiav txim seb yuav faib lawv cov peev nyiaj li cas lossis npaj rau cov nuj nqis uas xav tau rau lub sijhawm tom ntej.
Kuj tseem paub, vim li cas cov kev kwv yees sib sau ua ke yog qhov tseeb dua?
Aggregated forecasts yog qhov tseeb dua tshaj disaggregated kev kwv yees . Kev hloov pauv ntawm kev thov ntawm txhua qhov chaw muag khoom yog smoothed thaum sib sau ua ke nrog rau lwm qhov chaw, muab a tseeb dua kev kwv yees. Koj tuaj yeem ua tiav qhov kev txhim kho zoo sib xws los ntawm kev kwv yees tus sib sau ua ke thov rau tag nrho cov variations ntawm ib yam khoom ua ke.
Kev npaj ua ke yog dab tsi thiab nws lub hom phiaj yog dab tsi?
Kev npaj ua ke suav nrog kev tsim cov phiaj xwm dav dav rau kev ua haujlwm, cov khoom tsim tawm, thiab qib khoom muag. Lub hom phiaj yog los tsim ib txoj kev npaj ua kom siv tau zoo ntawm cov peev txheej ntawm ib qho koom haum.
Pom zoo:
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