Puas yog hindsight bias phem?
Puas yog hindsight bias phem?

Video: Puas yog hindsight bias phem?

Video: Puas yog hindsight bias phem?
Video: What is Hindsight bias? 2024, Kaum ib hlis
Anonim

Hindsight kev tsis ncaj ncees tuaj yeem ua rau koj tsis ntseeg siab. Vim koj xav tias koj tau kwv yees cov xwm txheej yav dhau los, koj xav tias koj tuaj yeem pom cov xwm txheej yav tom ntej tuaj. Koj thawj koom ruam ntau dhau ntawm qhov txiaj ntsig tau siab dua thiab koj txiav txim siab, feem ntau cov neeg pluag, raws li qhov tsis ncaj ncees lawm ntawm kev ntseeg siab.

Piv txwv li, dab tsi yog qee qhov piv txwv ntawm kev tsis saib xyuas tom qab?

Lwm tus piv txwv ntawm hindsight bias yog thaum tib neeg tsis ncaj ncees lawm tus qhov tshwm sim ntawm ib qho kev tshwm sim, tab sis thov lawv paub tias nws yuav mus tus opposite txoj kev uas lawv xub hais. Rau muab ib piv txwv ntawm no kev saib tsis taus tom qab : Xav tias koj muaj npib nrog ob sab, ib tug yog taub hau thiab ib tug yog tail.

Tsis tas li ntawd, koj yuav ua li cas nrog kev tsis pom kev tsis ncaj ncees?

  1. Ua ntej, nco ntsoov koj tus kheej tias koj tsis tuaj yeem kwv yees yav tom ntej. Peb tsis yog shamans.
  2. Tshawb xyuas cov ntaub ntawv. Ib txwm, ib txwm, ib txwm.
  3. Sau koj txoj kev xav. Hindsight bias yog kev kho dua tshiab.
  4. Xav txog lwm cov txiaj ntsig. Nco ntsoov sau cov no thiab.
  5. Ua koj qhov kev txiav txim siab.
  6. Txheeb xyuas qhov tshwm sim.

Kuj tseem xav paub, dab tsi yog hindsight bias txhais tau tias?

Hindsight kev tsis ncaj ncees yog ib lo lus siv hauv kev puas siab puas ntsws los piav qhia qhov nyiam ntawm tib neeg kom overestimate lawv lub peev xwm los kwv yees qhov tshwm sim uas tsis tuaj yeem kwv yees tau.

Dab tsi yog qhov txawv ntawm overconfidence thiab hindsight bias?

Yog qhov xwm txheej tsis tshwm sim, kev saib tsis taus tom qab txhais tau tias P2W yuav tsawg dua PIQ. Thaum Ei yog xoom, A (IQ, 2W) rov siab dua rau cov kev kawm nrog ntau dua kev saib tsis taus tom qab . Yog peb xav tias kev saib tsis taus tom qab yog zoo correlated nrog kev ntseeg siab heev yog lawm, A(IQ, 2W) tuaj yeem ua haujlwm rau kev ntsuas kev ntseeg siab heev.

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